As is well known, Donald Trump is preparing for war with Iran. There are possibly fifty thousand American military personnel in the Middle East, located within numerous bases in the area. These bases are located in countries which are considered to be allies of the United States, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qater, Iraq, Turkey and UAE, United Arab Emirates.
Trump thinks he can count upon these countries to support him, in his war with Iran. Trump is mistaken.
In preparation for that war, Trump has sent numerous military ‘’assets’’ to the Middle East. These include an ‘’aircraft carrier task force’’, among other things. A second such task force is reported to be on its way. Each carrier is home to numerous aircraft, including fighters, bombers and surveillance aircraft. The ship that carries these aircraft acts as a water based, mobile airfield.
There can be no doubt that the American military is among the most powerful, best equipped, well trained forces in the world. God help any army which chooses to challenge them, in a conventional war! They would very likely not live to regret it!
For that reason, the Iranians are not about to defend themselves, against an American attack, by ‘’symmetrical’’ methods. On the contrary, for many years, they have been developing alternative weapons. These include various missiles and drones, as well as submarines and surface boats, designed specifically with the coast of Iran in mind. This is referred to as ‘’asymmetrical warfare’’.
Iran lies next to a body of water referred to as the Persian Gulf, which connects through a narrow strait, called the Strait of Hormuz, to the Arabian Sea. This Strait is referred to as, ’’A narrow chokepoint through which a significant portion of the worlds oil supply flows every single day.’’ In fact, a fifth of the oil supply of the world flows through that Strait, each and every day. Cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would cause a significant increase in the price of petroleum, including gasoline.
In case of war with America, the Iranians plan to lure the American warships into the narrow Strait of Hormuz. There is far less room to maneuver, and the Strait is quite shallow. The Iranians have developed surface boats and submarines, in order to take advantage of those features.
This brings us to the subject of missiles. Iran has a vast assortment of missiles, including those which are classified as ‘’short range’’, in that they can travel 1,000 kilometres, or 600 miles, medium range, which can travel 1,000 to 3,500 kilometres, or 600 to 2,200 miles, and long range, 3,500 to 5,500 kilometres, or 2,200 to 3,400 miles.
As well, some of these missiles are classified as ‘’cruise’’ missiles, which is to say that they are equipped with radar, so that they are able to ‘’follow the terrain’’, to fly at ‘’low altitude’’ and at ‘’moderate speed’’. In this manner, they are better able to avoid detection by radar.
Then there are ‘’hypersonic missiles’’, which is to say missiles that can travel faster than five times the speed of sound, or Mach 5, in that Mach is the speed of sound. They are also able to maneuver during flight, making them almost impossible to intercept.
As well, Iran has a vast number of drones. Tens of thousands of drones, of various types. All are classified as ‘’Military Drones’’, or ‘’Unmanned Aerial Vehicles’’, UAV’s. Some of them are used strictly for reconnaissance, in that they are able to spy on the enemy and send that information back to their base. The vast majority are ‘’combat’’ drones, in that they carry ‘’ordnance’’, which is to say explosives, possibly in the form of bombs or missiles. The bigger drones are capable of firing off missiles and returning to base. The smaller drones, also known as ‘’Kamikaze’’, or ‘’Suicide’’ drones, are designed to strike a target and explode. They are far more numerous, cheap and expendable.
Iran has made it abundantly clear, to their neighbours in the Middle East, that in case of a war with America, any country which collaborates with the Americans, will be considered to be an enemy. All American bases in the region, will be subject to attack. Any country which allows the Americans to even use their air space, will be subject to attack. Any such war will not be a ‘’limited’’ war. It will be a ‘’Regional’’ war.
As well, both Russia and China have sent warships to the Region. They too, are engaging in ‘’war games’’, with their Iranian friends. This is to say that any ‘’Regional’’ war could expand beyond the Middle East. World War 3.
There is considerable speculation, among military theorists, concerning the possibility that the Iranians could seriously damage, or even sink, an American aircraft carrier. Most are of the opinion that they cannot, as those ships are closely guarded by smaller surface warships, generally referred to as destroyers. True! It is also true that those destroyers are prepared to shoot down any drone or missile threatening that carrier. Yet there are a limited number of missiles on board any destroyer, and those missiles cost many millions. As opposed to drones, which cost a mere few thousand. Do the math!
As the Iranians are not entirely stupid, it only makes sense for them, in case of war, to send dozens, or even hundreds of drones, against the carriers. Of course, many of them would be shot down. But it is reasonable to expect many others to penetrate those defences and inflict some serious damage on the carrier. Even if it was damaged to the extent that it could not use the flight deck, that would be serious. As well, the supporting destroyers would no longer have any missiles to defend the carrier.
That would leave the carrier practically helpless, unable to defend against missiles, either cruise missiles or hyper sonic missiles. Such missiles carry a most impressive warhead, very massive, very powerful. Further, travelling at very high speed, hitting the carrier, it is only reasonable to expect them to penetrate the armour on the carrier, and explode deep inside the ship, at the point where the missiles, bombs and gasoline are stored. This would no doubt give rise to a most massive explosion.
Without doubt, the Iranians could sink a multi billion dollar aircraft carrier, mainly with the use of drones, which cost a mere few thousand. And rest assured, that is precisely their plan!
This brings us to the other major problem the American military is facing, that of ‘’logistics’’. According to the internet, ‘’logistics in the military’’, is defined as ‘’referring to the planning, execution and management of the movement and maintenance of forces, encompassing supply, transportation, and support services necessary for military operations’’.
As previously mentioned, America has numerous military bases in the Middle East. Each and every one of these bases is located in countries which are thought to be strong allies of America. Yet most of them are ruled by feudal monarchies. The monarchs of such countries are completely devoid of principle. They are concerned only with themselves. They will not hesitate to turn against an ‘’ally’’, to ‘’stab them in the back’’, if they think it is in their best interest to do so.
Now that Iran has established itself as a regional power, possibly capable of sinking an American aircraft carrier, the monarchs who formerly knelt down to the Americans, are having ‘’second thoughts’’. Some of them are in the process of giving the Americans their ‘’walking papers’’. Yankee go home!
This, in turn, is creating a logistical nightmare for the Americans. In particular, the long range bombers require a re-fuelling mid-flight. This is provided by aircraft referred to as KC-135 and KC-46 ‘’air tankers’’, in that they can carry massive amounts of gasoline. This significantly extends the range of the American bombers.
Aside from the air bases located within the Middle East, the closest base is located in Diego Garcia, approximately 3,800 kilometres or 2,400 miles away. No doubt the Americans are counting on this distant air base to provide the air support for long range bombers.
Even though this air base is far removed from Iran, that does not mean that it is safe from Iranian attack. They have also developed ships and cargo containers, to carry drones and rockets, over long distances. Some of these ships may appear to be merchant vessels, while carrying containers filled with drones and missiles. As soon as such a ship comes within proper range, the roofs of the cargo containers may open up, and a swarm of drones and missiles may be unleashed. The Iranians have learned a great deal, from the experience of the Ukrainians!
We can expect this tactic to be successful against American warships, as well as logistic centres, such as Diego Garcia.
As I write this, the mainstream press is reporting that negotiations, between representatives of the American and the Iranian governments, will soon take place. Be that as it may, it is not clear that the members of the IRGC, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp, will honour any commitment made by a representative of the Iranian government. After all, this most powerful branch of the Iranian armed forces, is independent of Iran’s army and answers only to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. That remains to be seen.
Strangely enough, even though America may soon find itself engaged in a major war, the mainstream press is making little mention of this. For that matter, even the Leftist press is largely glossing over the subject.
Instead, all branches of the press are largely focused on the government shut down, the Epstein Scandal and the uproar taking place in Minnesota, as well as in other states, largely as a result of the actions of ICE.
These issues are certainly important, and should be properly covered, just as the anticipated war in the Middle East should be covered. As well, the common thread linking all of them is the fact that they are the natural result of monopoly capitalism, imperialism. That is the ‘’not so little detail’’ that no journalist, either mainstream or Leftist, is about to mention!
Yet Lenin covered this supremely well, in his work Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism. He showed that, around the beginning of the Twentieth Century, capitalism reached the stage of monopoly, referred to as imperialism. At the same time, the so called ‘’Great Powers’’, succeeded in ‘’dividing up’’ the world, between them. As Lenin stated, ‘’As there are no unoccupied territories- that is, territories that do not belong to any state- in Asia and America…we must say that the characteristic feature of this period is the final partition of the globe- not in the sense that a new partition is impossible- on the contrary, new partitions are possible and inevitable- but in the sense that the colonial policy of the capitalist countries has completed the seizure of the unoccupied territories on our planet. For the first time the world is completely shared out, so that in the future, only re-division is possible; territories can only pass from one ‘owner’ to another, instead of passing as unowned territory to an ‘owner’’’. (italics by Lenin)
There is a reason that both Russia and China are conducting ‘’war games’’ in the sea, with their ‘’Iranian allies’’. They are supremely well aware that Iran is now a ‘’Regional Power’’, challenging the authority of the American imperialists. In popular terms, they can be thought of as ‘’sharks that smell blood’’, now circling, preparing to attack.
The American imperialists consider the Middle East to be part of their ‘’Sphere of Influence’’, as they phrase it. Their various military bases, in the Region, are meant to drive this point home. As the Iranians are no longer paying strict attention, stronger measures are required. Hence, the aircraft carrier task force. The message is clear: The Middle East belongs to America!
As for those who may object, quite reasonably, that the countries of the Middle East are hardly colonies, may I suggest that these countries are referred to, by Lenin, as ‘’semi colonial’’. As Lenin stated, ‘’The semi colonial states provide an example of the transitional forms which are to be found in all spheres of nature and society. Finance capital is such a great, it may be said, such a decisive force in all economic and international relations, that it is capable of subordinating to itself, and actually does subordinate to itself, even states enjoying complete political independence. …Naturally, finance capital finds it most ‘convenient’, and is able, to extract the greatest profit from a subordination which involves the loss of the political independence of the subjected countries and peoples.’’
It is these ‘’semi colonies’’ of the Middle East, that are the current ‘’bone of contention’’, of the competing imperialist powers. The American imperialists are determined to keep control of those countries, while the Russian and Chinese imperialists have other ideas. They appear to be convinced that the Iranians are about to give the Americans their ‘’walking papers’’, to kick them out of the Region, possibly with the assistance, a little ‘’nudge’’ on their part. Such a ‘’nudge’’ could escalate into Regional war, if not World War.
This is not too surprising, because as Lenin stated, the world has long since been divided up, between the imperialist powers. Now it is a matter of a redivision, which is not only ‘’possible’’, but also ‘’inevitable’’. Such a ‘’redivision’’ is possible only through war.
Now it is our duty to assist the people of Iran, in their struggle against the imperialists, of all nationalities. As the country is quite highly industrialized, there must be a sizeable working class, a proletariat. It is also very likely that they are reasonably well cultured, with access to various digital devices, so that they can also access the internet. Those who speak Farsi can communicate with the common people of Iran, both workers and farmers, and encourage them to download the essential works of Marx and Lenin, especially State and Revolution, by Lenin. I offer that as a mere suggestion. The one thing we cannot and must not do, is to offer support to any of the competing imperialist powers.
With Most Sincere Communist Greetings,
Gerald McIsaac