Middle East Set To Explode

The country of Israel is very small, with a population of less than ten million people. It is also a Zionist country, in that it was created in 1948, by certain members of the Jewish faith. These particular people believe that the ‘’Holy Land’’, otherwise known as ‘’Palestine’’, was given to them, by God. Of course, we should all respect the personal beliefs of one another. 

This in no way changes the fact that, for hundreds of years, prior to this, people of various beliefs lived together, within the land referred to as Palestine. These included Muslims, Christians and Jews. They generally respected the beliefs of each other. 

That situation changed, quite dramatically, with the creation of the state of Israel, a Zionist state. The Zionists then forced countless people, whose ancestors had lived in that area for hundreds of years, to ‘’vacate the premises’’. Most of these people were Muslims, and they were forced to ‘’relocate’’, mainly to huge ‘’refugee camps’’, in which they were forced to rely mainly on handouts. That is true to this day. This is nothing other than a form of human degradation.  

Of course, over the years, those people resisted. Now we have most of those ‘’refugees’’, located in two areas, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, both controlled by Israel. The people who live in those areas, have no democratic rights.

Within the Gaza Strip, the political party Hamas is in charge. Now it is clear that they have been preparing for war, with Israel, for many years. During that time, they built some impressive tunnels, and managed to ‘’procure’’ some equally impressive weapons. Even more surprising, a great many men received extensive training. This enabled Hamas to conduct the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. This gave birth to the Israeli- Hamas War, now raging for the last nine months. 

Of course, Israel responded by invading the tiny Gaza Strip, with the stated intention of ‘’wiping out Hamas’’. Events have not proceeded precisely the way the Israeli’s intended. They have since found themselves bogged down in an urban war. The ruins of Gaza provide Hamas with ideal defensive fortifications. The Israeli’s are learning the same lesson the Nazis learned in Stalingrad!

The leaders of both Israel and Hamas have been charged with war crimes. Both are being accused of waging war on civilians, by the International Criminal Court. In particular, Israel has been accused of starving civilians in Gaza, as well as bombing them, causing the deaths of countless innocent people.

The neighbouring countries are becoming ever more concerned, especially as the ‘’conflict’’ has spread well beyond the borders of Israel. In particular, the ‘’militant group’’ Hezbollah, which is based in the country of Lebanon, to the north of Israel, has been supporting the people of Gaza, with ‘’missile and drone strikes’’. These strikes have caused a series of wildfires, as well as damage to structures in Israel, and a number of casualties.

Hezbollah is thought to have an army of possibly one hundred thousand men, and has close ties to Iran. It is also reported to have two hundred thousand missiles, as well as a great many drones. For that reason, this ‘’threat’’ is being taken very seriously. It has even been suggested that these missile attacks are merely a method of testing the Israeli defences. It has further been suggested that a ‘’deadly war is unfolding in slow motion’’. Without doubt, ever more advanced weaponry has been deployed by Hezbollah, striking ever deeper into Israel.

It is significant that Israel relies heavily, on that which it refers to as an ‘’Iron Dome’’ defence. This is a sophisticated network of radar that detects incoming missiles, and rockets that intercept those missiles, destroying them. Yet it is clear that some missiles and drones have managed to get through, so that the defensive system is by no means infallible.

It is thought that Hezbollah is using drones, to fly at low altitude, so that radar cannot detect them. Without doubt, certain drones, as well as some rockets, are penetrating the Israeli defences.  

Incidentally, drones that carry explosives and are designed to ‘’crash and burn’’, are referred to as ‘’suicide drones’’, or ‘’kamikaze drones’’. By contrast, drones which are designed to monitor, or which drop explosives and then return to their base, are referred to merely as drones. 

Some of those more advanced weapons, both drones and missiles, come complete with ‘’AI’’, which stands for ‘’Artificial Intelligence’’. This is to say that these drones come complete with computers, which are ‘’able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence’’, so that they are able to evade the Israeli military systems. As well, ‘’modified and improved missiles’’, courtesy of Iran, are reported to be in the possession of Hezbollah. These are being used to good effect. 

Naturally, the Israelis have responded with artillery and air strikes, within Lebanon, against Hezbollah. It is their declared intention to ‘’push Hezbollah back from the border’’, by ‘’taking necessary measures to secure the border with Lebanon’’, according to an Israeli spokesman.

Perhaps a little explanation is in order, as so many political parties and groups are involved.

As perviously mentioned, one such party is that of Hamas, which is located mainly in Gaza, and is engaged in a full scale war with Israel. The Israelis are determined to ‘’wipe out’’ Hamas. 

Also in Gaza, there is the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or PIJ, fighting alongside Hamas, against the Israeli army, referred to as the Israeli Defence Force, or IDJ. 

Also as previously mentioned, to the north of Israel, in Lebanon, we have Hezbollah, a very powerful force. 

These political parties, or groups, are considered to be ‘’proxies’’ of Iran. It is widely assumed that they are being armed and equipped by Iran.

A proxy, by definition, has the authority to represent someone else. As that is the case, it means that they are just as determined to destroy Israel, as is Iran. 

To further complicate matters, we have the Houthis, based in Yemen. They appear to be part of the Islamic Resistance Movement, based in Iraq.

If this sounds confusing, it is only because it is confusing. The one characteristic they all have in common, is hatred of Israel.

The Houthis of Yemen have determined to support the people of Gaza, by attacking ships in the ‘’Red Sea Corridor’’. Or at least, they are attacking ships that are bound for Israeli ports. Several cargo ships have been struck, and possibly two have been sunk. This has had the desired effect of ‘’disrupting global trade, causing ship owners to divert their ships’’, which has given rise to ‘’cascading delays and costs through supply chains’’, by ‘’forcing ships away from the Suez Canal’’. 

It is not just commercial shipping that has been attacked, in the Red Sea. The Houthis have also been attacking an American military fleet, led by the aircraft carrier Eisenhower. 

A spokesman for the American navy expressed his opinion that the assignment, of protecting shipping in the Red Sea, against the Houthis, has resulted in ‘’one of the most intense sea battles since the Second World War. Almost daily attacks’’. He went on to state that ‘’They have a lot of advanced weaponry, from their friends in Iran, and they have no problem using it’’. 

An American Commander went on to explain that the situation is ‘’perilously dangerous. We have only to get it wrong once. The Houthis just have to get one through’’. 

A Houthi spokesman stated that these attacks were ‘’in retaliation for the attacks committed against the Palestinian people, in the Gaza Strip, and in response to the American and British aggression against our country’’. 

The United Nations, the UN, is concerned that a single ‘’miscalculation’’ could lead to war, which could engulf the Middle East. The UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for an ‘’immediate, full and complete ceasefire’’.

Without doubt, their fears are well grounded. As American warships are being targeted, such a war could spread well beyond the Middle East. 

A conscientious American military analyst provided an assessment of the danger involved in full scale war, in the Middle East. 

In the stilted jargon, which is typical of the military, he stated that the ‘’American military has been forced to de centralize, which makes them weaker. This is referred to as ’anti access/area denial’, or ’A2/D2’. This may well be the most difficult operational challenge the US forces will face, over the coming decades’’. (my italics)

It is significant that the American military is planning for war, over a period of decades! Not that they call it war, but ‘’operational challenge’’! And this ‘’decades long war’’ will happen, unless they are stopped!

It is very likely that the current ‘’Israeli- Hamas War’’ will soon become a ‘’Regional War’’, engulfing the whole Middle East, and beyond. For that reason, it is best to know what to expect.

For the benefit of those who are not engineers and physicists, a little explanation is in order.

‘’Mach 1’’ is simply the speed of sound, and ‘’sub sonic’’ is less than the speed of sound, while ‘’super sonic’’ is faster than the speed of sound.

A ‘’UAV’’, is an ‘’Unmanned Aerial Vehicle’’, or a vehicle that flies, without anyone on board.

Missiles are classified as either ‘’Cruise Missiles’’, which fly at rather low altitude, and generally at ‘’Subsonic Speeds’’, less than the speed of sound, and ‘’Ballistic Missiles’’, which tend to travel at ‘’Super Sonic’’ speed, faster than the speed of sound, and at high altitude.    

Then there is the ‘’Circular Error Probable’’, or ‘’CAP’’, which is a measure of accuracy, in that it gives the size of the ‘’Circle’’, in which the projectile is expected to land. 

The military analysts are convinced that Iran has developed a number of very advanced ‘’weapon systems’’, aside from the less advanced weapons, which they have provided to their ‘’proxies’’, such as Hezbollah. These more advanced weapons are being built and stored underground. 

There can be no doubt that Iran has adapted to economic ‘’sanctions’’, imposed by America. Certain of these sanctions have been avoided by ‘’exploiting third party countries and black markets, using front companies and false registrations’’. 

As a result of this, the military analysts are convinced that Iran has developed ‘’cutting edge technology’’. In particular, they now have ‘’stealth UAV’s’’, in that these Unmanned Aerial Drones are ‘’invisible’’ to radar. As well, they have managed to design ‘’two stage solid propellant missiles’’, which can be ‘’launched from mobile launchers’’, thought to be ‘’long range and very accurate’’. Then there is the  ‘’Electro Magnetic Rail Gun’’, perhaps the first of its kind, exceptionally powerful, with no need for an explosive propellent. 

These are the weapons that Iran is keeping ‘’in reserve’’. In case of ‘’Regional War’’, we can expect those same weapons to be used. It remains to be seen just how well the Israeli and American defences stand up to these weapon systems. 

Unless, of course, as previously mentioned, they are stopped! With that in mind, consider that which Lenin wrote in 1917, at the time of the first great slaughter of working people, referred to as the First World War:

‘’The war is not a product of the evil will of rapacious capitalists, although it is undoubtedly being fought only in their interests, and they alone are being enriched by it. The war is the product of half a century of development of world capitalism and of its billions of threads and connections. It is impossible to slip out of the imperialist war and achieve a democratic, non coercive peace, without overthrowing the power of capital and transferring state power to another class, the proletariat.’’ (italics by Lenin)

It is completely reasonable to expect the Israeli- Hamas War to expand, as that is the stated intention of the leaders of Israel and Hezbollah, among others. They are not joking.

Just bear in mind that, as Lenin stated, this war ‘’is not the product of the evil will of rapacious capitalists’’. It is the ‘’product’’ of the ‘’development of world capitalism’’. The capitalists are being ‘’enriched’’ by this war, through the sale of weapons and ammunition to Israel. As they see it, ‘’nothing personal, just business’’. 

For that reason, the capitalists have to be overthrown, and state power must be placed in the hands of the proletariat. This is referred to as the Dictatorship of the Proletariat. 

In this way, we can best support the people of Palestine. With the capitalists overthrown, they will no longer be supplying the Zionists with armaments. As well, the military will not be patrolling the Red Sea, so that they will not be targeted by the Houthis. 

It is in this way, and only in this way, that a ‘’democratic, non coercive peace’’, can possibly be achieved. 

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