Corona Virus and Statistics

The daily death toll in America, as a result of the corona virus, has just reached a record 502, so that nearly 3,000 Americans have now died, as a result of the sickness. That number is expected to rise dramatically, as the virus continues to spread. The medical experts are predicting an eventual death toll of between 100,00 and 200,000, although others predict the death toll could rise to the millions. To support their predictions, the medical experts are producing graphs, charts and ”curves which must be flattened”, ”epicentres”, ”hot spots” and percentages, number of people infected and number of fatalities.

Perhaps the medical professionals and journalists are convinced that most common people, members of the public, are at heart mathematically inclined, as it is only mathematicians who find these figures and charts to be fascinating. Such is hardly the case. Or perhaps those same people are of the opinion that it is necessary to confuse common people, as they do not want anyone to understand the breadth and depth of their incompetence.

With that in mind, it is best to explain a few simple terms, which many people may find to be a bore, but bear with me, as this is important. The medical people love to speak in terms of percentages, so let us start with that.

Think of a base of one hundred people, so that one person is one out of a hundred, referred to as one percent. For every one hundred people who get the virus and one person dies, then the fatality rate, which is the death rate, is one percent. By contrast, if five of those hundred people die as a result of getting the virus, then the fatality rate is five percent.

That is quite simple, but then the fatality rate can be expressed in different terms, such as four point two percent, or 4.2%. Think of this as 42 out of 1,000, or forty two people out of one thousand people who are infected, and destined to die.

Now the press is reporting that world wide, there are 775,300 people who are infected with the corona virus. Of those people who are infected, 36,900 have died. By dividing the number of people who have died by the number of people who have been infected, we arrive as a fatality rate of 4.7%. This means that for every thousand people who are infected by the virus, forty seven have died.

By contrast, in America, there are a reported 158,400 cases of corona virus, with a death toll of 2,919. That gives us a mortality rate of 1.8%, or one point eight percent. This means that for every one thousand Americans who catch the virus, eighteen have died. This is lower than the world wide average, for good reason. The medical care in America is far better than in most parts of the world.

These numbers are important, because the medical professionals use them to estimate the number of people who will get sick and die, as a result of this virus. The virus is very contagious, or ”catchie”, as is the popular term. So the experts put their calculators to work and estimate that if ten percent of the population, which is ten of every hundred Americans catch the virus, then thirty three million Americans will be infected. Further, if one point eight percent of those who are infected were to die, then 594,000 Americans would die.

Those numbers are far higher than the estimated number of Americans who are expected to die as a result of being infected with the virus. The experts have come up with a number of between 100,000 and 200,000. Clearly they expect far fewer people to be infected with the virus, and they also expect the medical attention they receive to remain at a very high level.

The fact remains that the more people who become infected, the more people will die. It is also a fact that the higher the level of medical care patients receive, the less people will die.

The best we can say about these numbers is that they are wildly optimistic. Perhaps the only way to control the spread of the virus is to isolate people who are infected, to keep them away from other people. They simply cannot infect people with whom they have no contact. This approach has proven effective in other parts of the world.

Compare this with the situation in America. New York City is now considered the ”epicentre” of the epidemic in the country. Of the nearly 3,000 dead so far, nearly half have died in the state of New York. On one day alone, 253 people have died in the state. Across the country, the death toll for the day stands at 502. The hospitals in New York City are being described as ”swamped”, a ”medical war zone”, with the medical facilities on the verge of collapse. Of the New York City police, thirteen percent are out sick, mainly as a result of being infected with the virus, in the performance of their duties.

The New York City first responders and medical workers are on the ”front lines” of this ”medical war zone”. Many of them are personally shopping for personal protective equipment for themselves and their patients, as there is such a severe shortage. Both hospital staff and first responders are working around the clock, short handed and desperate for the proper equipment. It is estimated they will run out of equipment within a week.

The navy hospital ship, the Comfort, has been sent to New York City, in an attempt to take some pressure off the hospitals. In addition, a temporary hospital has been set up in Central Park. It is not clear where they expect to find the equipment or the personnel to work at this hospital.

In addition, those who are classified as working in ”essential services”, which is to say the delivery personnel, are going on strike, demanding personal protective equipment and hazardous duty pay. Many of these people too are becoming infected with the virus, also in the performance of their duties.

There are numerous other ”hot spots” in the country, such as New Orleans, Chicago, Florida, New Jersey and Philadelphia, to name a few. Others are popping up on a daily basis. It is anticipated that the ”rural America health care system will be quickly over whelmed”. In fact, it is clear that the whole American medical system is in danger of collapse. If that happens, the death rate from the corona virus will sky rocket.

Other countries are taking decisive action. Italy and Spain are completely shut down. People are allowed to leave their homes only to get groceries or in case of an emergency. Only essential services workers are continuing to perform their duties, and they are provided with proper personal protective equipment. The leaders of those countries are aware of the gravity of the situation and are taking the appropriate measures to protect their citizens.

That stands in stark contrast to the American leaders. As Trump stated the issue, ”We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself”. As he sees it, the ”problem” is the corona virus, and the ”cure” is isolation, or ”social distancing”, to use the technical term. This begs the question: How can isolation be worse than the ”problem” of citizens being infected with the virus and many of them dying?

To answer that question, we have only to take a glance at the stock market. This should not be difficult, as the news reports are divided between the devastation caused by the virus, and the dropping stock market. The two are connected, to an extent, as people who are ”self isolating” are not spending their money, if for no other reason than that they do not have any money to spend. A great many people are out of work, and the number is growing, as most small businesses are shutting down. These are considered to be Too Small To Succeed. The major corporations, those which are considered Too Big To Fail, are merely laying off their workers, while receiving massive amounts of corporate welfare.

The contrast is sharp and clear. The country is entering a depression, millions of workers are losing their jobs and will soon lose their houses, to become homeless. Countless people are becoming infected with the virus and many of them will die, if only because the medical treatment they so desperately need is not available. The small business owners, the middle class or petty bourgeois, are being wiped out, forced to join the ranks of the working class, the proletariat. Yet the money they pay in taxes is being given to the super rich, the billionaires, the bourgeoisie! The government cannot afford to equip the medical professionals with the equipment they so desperately need, yet they can afford to donate countless billions to the bourgeoisie!

To add insult to injury, Trump is accusing the medical people of stealing their own equipment! The same people who are putting their lives on the line, risking their health in order to assist those who are sick and injured, are in turn being accused, by their own president, of being thieves! Look who’s talking! The ”kettle calling the pot black”! Trump is a most accomplished thief, with a long history of stealing at every opportunity. For that reason, he just naturally assumes that every one else is no different.

I have news for you, Mister President. Not everyone is like you. Working people are poor for a reason. We work for a living! We support ourselves, we contribute to society, we pay taxes, and that is the reason we are poor! You on the other hand are extremely rich, do not pay taxes, do not support yourself, and steal at every opportunity. That is the reason that you, and the other members of your class, the bourgeoisie, are so rich!

What is more, Mister Billionaire President, we have had enough! You and your class, the bourgeoisie, place profits before people! That is the reason you are so reluctant to isolate those who are infected with the corona virus. You are afraid it will cut into your profits! You do not call it profit, you refer to it as the ”economy”. As if you care about the economy! You care only about your profits!

To put it in popular terms, ”your days are numbered”. The working people are fed up. The essential services workers are now rising up. The nurses are demonstrating, and the delivery service workers are going on strike. This could well be the start of a nation wide protest, a revolutionary uprising. It is just a matter of time, and very likely a short time.

To those who are aware of the revolutionary theories of Marx and Lenin, I can only suggest that you get active and form a proper Communist Party, one which openly advocates for the Dictatorship Of the Proletariat. That will help to distinguish yourselves from those who claim to be Marxists, but are revisionists.

As for those who are not aware of those theories, I suggest a careful reading of the Essential Works of Lenin, to start. That should give you a proper grounding in Marxist revolutionary theory. As for those who have little use for theory, may I point out that the success -or failure- of the approaching revolution depends upon the proper application of the theory – or the advice if you will- of Marx and Lenin.

I can also suggest that all working people join the two mainstream political parties, Republican and Democratic, as card carrying members, party bosses. At the moment, they are firmly in the hands of the bourgeoisie. They should be challenged, if for no other reason than to add to the misery of the bourgeoisie. Do not pass up any opportunity to make their lives miserable. Besides, this will provide valuable training for such workers, which will be put to good use after the revolution, after we smash the existing state machinery and crush the bourgeoisie under the Dictatorship Of the Proletariat.

The revolution is fast approaching, and is not about to wait until we are prepared. Time is not on our side. Now is the time to act. Spread the advice of Marx and Lenin:

Workers of the World, Unite!

Scientific Socialism!

Dictatorship Of the Proletariat!